Monday, January 28, 2013

REAL ESTATE FORECAST

Hope everyone is having a great 2013 so far! 
Attached is a recap of the past three years of the real estate market at Lake of the Ozarks broken down by categories. From all indications it appears we have hit the bottom and are headed in a positive direction. I have also included a summary of the national forecast over the next 2 years. While every market is unique most of the overall trends will probably apply to the lake market.
 
If you would like to take advantage of the great interest rates check out the properties that are available by logging into my web site at www.condasells.com. Or if you would like to consider selling your lake property, the inventories are very low. Feel free to call or email if you have any specific questions or comments or if you would like a market analysis of your property.
Thanks!
 


Conda’s 2012 Recap
 
 
3 year Recap
2010
2011
2012

Total Sold Volume
$157,499,198
$172,720,400
$186,927,759
Total Sold Transactions
513
584
671
Average List Price
$335,419
$323,904
$298,883
Average Sold Price
$307,016
$295,754
$278,581
% of Avg. List Price vs. Avg. Sold Price
91.5%
91.3%
93.2%
Average Days on Market
170
176
173
# of Foreclosure Sales
51
56
44
All Homes not Lakefront
Total Sold Transactions
612
610
687
Total Sold Volume
$67,646,152
$59,746,375
$76,065,196
Average List Price
$118,204
$105,756
$118,151
Average Sold Price
$110,533
$97,945
$110,721
% of Avg. List Price vs. Avg. Sold Price
93.5%
92.6%
93.7%
Average Days on Market
133
146
153
# of Foreclosure Sales
232
230
217
Original Sale Condominiums
Total Sold Transactions
64
63
47
Total Sold Volume
$13,440,893
$12,453,534
$9,751,695
Average List Price
$209,927
$196,826
$202,746
Average Sold Price
$210,014
$197,675
$207,483
% of Avg. List Price vs. Avg. Sold Price
100.0%
100.4%
102.3%
Average Days on Market
452
528
215
# of Foreclosure Sales
5
0
4
Resale Condominiums
Total Sold Transactions
386
376
473
Total Sold Volume
$59,541,156
$57,813,805
$70,505,572
Average List Price
$164,025
$163,905
$157,217
Average Sold Price
$154,252
$153,760
$149,060
% of Avg. List Price vs. Avg. Sold Price
94.0%
93.8%
94.8%
Average Days on Market
168
172
172
# of Foreclosure Sales
54
34
33
Villas and Townhomes
Total Sold Transactions
19
40
37
Total Sold Volume
$5,964,580
$9,897,098
$9,782,620
Average List Price
$339,093
$263,661
$278,632
Average Sold Price
$313,925
$247,427
$264,395
% of Avg. List Price vs. Avg. Sold Price
92.6%
93.8%
94.9%
Average Days on Market
252
160
173
# of Foreclosure Sales
4
9
11
Lakefront Lots and Land
Total Sold Transactions
41
35
51
Total Sold Volume
$5,063,196
$3,792,500
$6,966,650
Average List Price
$153,287
$134,429
$166,230
Average Sold Price
$123,493
$108,357
$136,601
% of Avg. List Price vs. Avg. Sold Price
80.6%
80.6%
82.2%
Average Days on Market
183
192
201
# of Foreclosure Sales
4
8
8
All Non-Lakefront Land
Total Sold Transactions
129
99
124
Total Sold Volume
$6,481,194
$2,928,201
$5,012,179
Average List Price
$56,931
$38,763
$46,235
Average Sold Price
$50,242
$29,578
$40,421
% of Avg. List Price vs. Avg. Sold Price
88.3%
76.3%
87.4%
Average Days on Market
177
194
243
# of Foreclosure Sales
11
12
16
Commercial
Total Sold Transactions
33
39
36
Total Sold Volume
$11,317,151
$7,639,375
$7,086,500
Average List Price
$411,426
$239,640
$233,689
Average Sold Price
$342,944
$195,881
$196,847
% of Avg. List Price vs. Avg. Sold Price
83.4%
81.7%
84.2%
Average Days on Market
189
257
338
# of Foreclosure Sales
7
11
12
Farms
Total Sold Transactions
7
12
17
Total Sold Volume
$915,250
$3,577,200
$4,747,900
Average List Price
$142,521
$352,113
$307,565
Average Sold Price
$130,750
$298,100
$279,288
% of Avg. List Price vs. Avg. Sold Price
91.7%
84.7%
90.8%
Average Days on Market
88
213
209
# of Foreclosure Sales
1
1
2
Totals
Total Number of Transactions Sold
1,804
1,858
2,143
Total Sold Volume
$327,868,770
$330,568,488
$376,846,071
Total Foreclosures Sold
369
361
347
Data from Bagnell Dam Board of Realtors MLS

Homes
Market activity continues to improve at Lake of the Ozarks.  According to MLS data the total number of transactions  increased 19% since 2010 while the number of foreclosures dropped 6% during the same time frame showing market stability. 
Lakefront home sales volume increased by 30% while the average sales price declined by 9% from 2010 to 2012.  Non-lakefront homes sales volume increased slightly while average sales price remained steady.  The number of foreclosures for both waterfront and non-waterfront decreased slightly.
Condos
The number of original (new construction) condo unit sales decreased slightly showing that the over-supply is depleting.  The average sales price remained steady.  Resale condos unit sales increased substantially up 22% with the average sales price remaining relatively steady.
Villas/Townhomes
The number of villa/townhome units sold did increase but still remains a small number due to the limited number of units available.
Lots and Land
Lakefront lots increased in both transactions and average sales price while non-lakefront remained relatively steady.
Commercial
The number of commercial transactions remained steady while average sales price fell 43%.
Farms
Farms show the highest gain with number of transactions increasing 143% which is exaggerated due to the small quantity of sales.  The average sales price also increased substantially at 114%.
Overview
The total number of transactions across all categories increased by 19% while foreclosures decreased 6% from 2010 to 2012.  Low interest rates continue to drive the real estate market as buyers scramble to take advantage of low prices and low rates as the inventory continues to decrease.


What the Future Holds--Real Estate Forecast
According to the National Association of Realtor January/February 2013 issue, the real estate future looks bright. They are predicting that the average sales price will increase from $177,000 in 2012 to $193,000 in 2014; existing home sales will increase from 4.64 million to 5.3 million and housing starts will almost double.  Interest rates are predicted to increase from 3.7% to 4.8% while distressed sales will decrease from 25% of total sales to 8%.  In the commercial market vacancy rates are predicted to decrease and rental growth will almost double from 2011 to the end of 2013.
If you own property at the lake and would like a market analysis give me a call or send me an email and I will happy to send you comparative data that is more specific to your type of property.  Also, if you have property and you would like something different let me know so I can enter you in my property match spreadsheet.  I have a number of owners that want to move from a condo to a home or from a large home to smaller home or from smaller home to larger home.  I did complete several transactions where trading property was involved in 2012.  If you would like any property analyzed just give me a call.
Conda
5732160553
conda@gotlake.com
 

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